4-th Annual UCAR/NCAR Early Career Scientists Assembly (ECSA) Junior Faculty Forum on Future Scientific Directions (JFF)

Regional and Global Models: A study in model sensitivities to various parameters

Subtopics

Parameterizations and parameter sensitivities in global models: limitations and implications for predictability and uncertainty

Understanding the limitations of sub grid scale parameterizations and their effect on uncertainty in future climate projections. Using Monte Carlo methods and observations to constrain model parameters and reduce uncertainty in climate models.

Random Parameters in Differential Equations

Understanding how deterministic equations are influenced by random parameters (given some distribution of the parameter of interest) and how this might be used in global models in the future.

Beginnings of a white paper

Some relevant papers*

* Knutti, Reto, Thomas F. Stocker, Fortunat Joos, and Gian-Kasper Plattner, 2002. Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles, letters to nature: 416:719--723, 18 April 2002.
* Meehl, Gerald A., Warren M. Washington, William D. Collins, Julie M. Arblaster, Aixue Hu, Lawrence E. Buja, Warren G. Strand, Haiyan Teng, 2005. How much more global warming and sea level rise?, Science 307: 1769--1772, 18 March 2005.
* Murphy, James M., David M.H. Sexton, David N. Barnett, Gareth S. Jones, Mark J. Webb, Matthew Collins, and David A. Stainforth, 2004. Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations, letter to nature 430: 768--772 12 August 2004.

*The above list is by no means a comprehensive list of relevant papers, but is intended to provide potential attendees with a better understanding of what the intention of the discussions is to be.

Topic chairs: Rudy L. Horne and Reto Knutti